Prostate cancer deaths worldwide to double by 2040

True figure may be much higher, new reports says, because men are living longer

Deaths from prostate cancer will double by 2040, a Lancet report has said.
The number of men being diagnosed with prostate cancer globally is set to rise from 1.4 million in 2020 to 2.9 million a year in 2040, while annual deaths are set to increase from around 375,000 to 700,000.
Experts said the true figures were “likely to be much higher” due to under-diagnosis and said the rise was because men were living longer.
Prostate cancer is the second most common cause of cancer death in men in the UK behind only lung cancer, with around 12,000 people dying from the disease each year, or around 33 men every day.
Risk factors such as being older than 50 and having a family history are unavoidable and mean better testing and diagnosis rates are needed, the Lancet will say as it launches its commission on prostate cancer at the European Association of Urology Congress this weekend.
Prof Nick James, lead author from the Institute of Cancer Research, in London, and a consultant clinical oncologist at the Royal Marsden, said: “As more and more men around the world live to middle and old age, there will be an inevitable rise in the number of prostate cancer cases.
“We know this surge in cases is coming, so we need to start planning and take action now.
“Evidence-based interventions, such as improved early detection and education programmes, will help to save lives and prevent ill health from prostate cancer in the years to come.”
Prostate cancer is already the leading cause of cancer in men in around half of the world’s countries and cases are expected to soar in the next two decades across low- and middle-income countries in particular.
Countries in east and south-central Asia as well as South and Central America are set for the biggest rise in cases and deaths as life expectancy increases, overtaking North America and western Europe.
The report predicts cases in western Europe, which includes the UK, will rise to 215,000 per year, with deaths rising to almost 40,000 annually.
The commission is calling for urgent global intervention to halt the tide and improve early diagnosis rates which can drastically improve survival rates.
The report’s authors highlight huge variations in diagnosis across Britain using the current protein-specific antigen (PSA) testing strategy, with one in eight men with prostate cancer diagnosed with advanced prostate cancer in London compared to more than one in three being diagnosed late in Scotland, according to the UK’s 2022 National Prostate Cancer Audit.
Prof James N’Dow, chair in surgery at the University of Aberdeen, said the increase in cancer cases and deaths would also “have huge economic and social impacts on families”.
“By preparing now for the upcoming surge in prostate cancer cases, with a particular emphasis on improved education and earlier diagnosis programmes, many of these harms could be reduced substantially,” he said.
Amy Rylance, the head of improving care at charity Prostate Cancer UK, said the Lancet Commission was “a timely call to action for the UK Government”.
She said the report “illustrates how the current UK passive “informed choice” programme — which requires men at high risk of prostate cancer to request their own tests — is not working as it should”.
“The Government and NHS need to review current guidelines to incorporate the latest evidence on the modern, and much safer, diagnostic pathway, and to recognise the groups at highest risk,” she said. 
“We strongly believe these men must then be proactively informed of their prostate cancer risk and offered the opportunity to make an informed choice of a PSA blood test.”